04 Feb The AI Diary: AI Bubble
Feb 4, 2026
Is There a Bubble in Artificial Intelligence?
Before we answer this question, we need to make an important distinction: there are two types of AI.
- AI funded and maintained directly by government money
- AI whose infrastructure is maintained by private companies (Example: OpenAI with ChatGPT)
Government-Funded AI
In November 2025, the Trump administration announced the Genesis Program for AI development, comparing the importance of this project to the Manhattan Project that developed the first nuclear bomb.
If you want to read more, here’s the direct link to the White House website: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/launching-the-genesis-mission/
Why is government-funded AI so critically important?
Because AI is a weapon. If you have a smart machine, it’s like having several geniuses capable of developing the best battle strategy or attack plan against an adversary.
Alongside the US, China is also working on its internal AI development programs. We’re witnessing an AI arms race similar to the nuclear bomb competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in time, regulations emerge restricting which nations can build AI data centers — similar to the current restrictions on nuclear programs.
AI development funded with government money will not stop. Even if these projects consume billions and operate at a loss, they will not stop. The taxpayer will pay.
Therefore, to the question: Is there an AI bubble? Answer: For government-funded AI, there will be no bubble.
Billions will continue to flow. Consequently, every sector that AI depends on will be interesting for investment.
Example: Energy
The Energy Problem
The other day I installed a local AI model on my computer and asked it to generate a picture of a green frog on a white background. Twenty seconds later, the frog was ready, and 20% of my battery was gone.
It turned out that I paid for that frog with electricity — and therefore, money!
AI requires enormous amounts of electricity. Current power capacities built worldwide were designed to supply current needs — factories, households. They were not built to power AI data centers.
Therefore, such capacities and electrical supply systems are yet to be built.
This process has already begun.
The Nuclear Comeback
Example: China plans to build 150 new nuclear reactors between 2020 and 2035 — more than the rest of the world has built in the past 35 years.
To put this in perspective: the world currently has approximately 440 operational nuclear reactors. China alone is planning to add 150 new reactors over 15 years, representing roughly one-third of the entire existing global nuclear fleet.
This expansion is part of China’s goal to reach 200 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2035, which would provide about 10% of China’s electricity. To achieve this, China is approving 6-10 new nuclear reactors every year, completing each in about 7 years — significantly faster than the 10-15 years typical in Western countries.
Here you can see the list of planned reactors worldwide: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide
Therefore: Uranium
Uranium is the key raw material for these nuclear capacities, which will be part of how AI’s energy needs are met.
My expectations, which may be wrong, are that uranium will rise in value. A precious commodity.
Why Uranium Prices Should Rise
- Current demand: ~67,000 tonnes of uranium per year
- 2030 projection: 87,000 tonnes (28% increase)
- 2040 projection: Over 150,000 tonnes (more than double)
- Supply problem: Existing mines will cover only 40% of 2035 demand
- Development timeline: 7-10 years from discovery to production for new uranium mines
Investment Ideas
Here are a few investments I’m personally watching:
- URNG – An ETF tracking companies involved in uranium mining, processing, and nuclear components manufacturing.
- KAP (Kazatomprom) – A major uranium producer in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan produces over 40% of the world’s uranium supply. This is a risky play due to Kazakhstan’s volatile political landscape, but strategically significant.
- CCJ (Cameco) – This is a vertically integrated company, meaning they do everything from A to Z and are independent of other companies. They produce everything themselves. One of the biggest players.